A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that divided the nation and caused turmoil, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly tense and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the political, financial and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unity has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or campaigners are willing to participate even with the basics. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author endorses unification or the existing arrangement. They authors two essays that strive for objectivity in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling economic and social data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover national emblems, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate say they favour unity but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, valid arguments, he stated. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and the other side will in the end be defeated but each side has has something to acquire from the other's arguments."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, said the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
